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Trends Report: What Reference Checks Reveal About Candidate Risk

Written by Emelie Dahl | 4/16/26 8:17 AM

Reference checking is used to confirm a candidate’s experience and performance. Just as importantly, it should provide insight into something less visible in the recruitment process: how a person actually behaves at work.

To explore this further, we analyzed anonymized data from the Refapp platform, covering hundreds of thousands of completed reference checks across industries and countries.

One of the patterns that stands out is that around 10% of candidates show deviations in responses related to counterproductive work behaviors (CWB), meaning behaviors that may indicate risk in a work context.

Understanding Risk-Related Behaviors

Counterproductive work behaviors include actions that can negatively affect colleagues, customers, or the organization.

These can include:

  • deliberate rule violations
  • poor judgment in responsibility-heavy situations
  • unprofessional behavior toward colleagues, customers, or patients

In many roles, especially those involving trust, safety, or responsibility, these types of behaviors can have real consequences over time.

What the Data Suggests

That around 1 in 10 candidates show some form of deviation in this area does not tell the whole story, but it does highlight an important point:

The risk dimension in hiring is real.

These behavioral signals are rarely visible in a resume or during interviews, but they can influence workplace dynamics, safety, and performance over time.

Even small signals can be relevant, depending on the role. In positions where responsibility, judgment, or trust are central, behavioral patterns may carry more weight than in others. 

The Role of Structured Reference Questions

One reason these patterns become visible is the use of structured reference questions.

Rather than relying on general impressions, structured questions ask references to evaluate specific behaviors using consistent formats.

Research shows that structured reference questions can improve both reliability and validity, making it easier to interpret feedback and compare candidates more fairly.

They also help surface behavioral signals that might otherwise go unnoticed.

Importantly, these insights are rarely uncovered through general or open-ended questions alone. They tend to emerge when references are asked specific, behavior-based questions about situations they have directly observed.

Carl-Johan Holmberg Researcher, Refapp

Examples can include questions about attendance, punctuality, interpersonal behavior, or whether any formal actions have been taken.

By asking structured and clearly defined questions about potential risk-related behaviors, hiring teams increase the likelihood of receiving honest and actionable feedback.

Being transparent about why these questions are asked also matters. When references understand that the purpose is to ensure a safe, well-functioning work environment, they are often more willing to provide candid responses.

In other words, how you ask matters just as much as what you ask.

A Broader Decision-Making Perspective

Reference checking is not only about confirming past performance. It also adds another layer to the decision-making process.

By including structured behavioral feedback, hiring teams can move beyond a narrow focus on competence and experience alone. Instead, they gain a broader perspective that includes how a candidate is likely to act in real work situations.

This makes it possible to identify potential risks earlier and to better understand how those risks relate to the specific role.

Context, Not Conclusions

It is important to interpret these signals with care.

A deviation in reference feedback is not a definitive judgment about a candidate. It is a data point that adds context to the overall evaluation.

Carl-Johan Holmberg Researcher, Refapp

For hiring teams, the value lies in asking better questions:

  • Are similar patterns mentioned by multiple references?
  • Are these behaviors relevant to the role in question?
  • Do they point to risks that should be explored further?

In this sense, reference checking is not about excluding candidates, but about making more informed and balanced decisions.

“Trust, But Verify”

While modern recruitment involves various steps like resumes, interviews, and assessments, they often rely on a single source of information: the candidate.

This is why reference checking is essential. Expanding your data collection beyond the candidate is a crucial step in any reliable process. Relying on multiple perspectives gives you a much more complete and accurate picture of how the candidate actually performs in a real work environment.

By combining structured questions with verified reference input, hiring teams can strengthen both the quality and the credibility of their decisions.

This is particularly important in environments where hiring decisions carry significant responsibility, whether that relates to safety, customer impact, or team dynamics.

The Bigger Picture

Taken together, the data suggests that reference checking can contribute more than confirmation. It can help identify patterns in behavior that are otherwise difficult to observe.

Around 10% of candidates showing deviations in risk-related behaviors is not a conclusion, but an insight. It highlights the importance of including behavioral perspectives in hiring decisions.

When used thoughtfully, reference checks help hiring teams build a more complete understanding of each candidate and make decisions with greater confidence🤝

 

About the Reference Checking Trends Report

This article is part of the Reference Checking Trends Report: Insights from Refapp Data, a series based on anonymized data from the Refapp platform.

By analyzing hundreds of thousands of reference checks across industries and countries, the series explores how reference checking works in practice today and what hiring teams can learn from real behavioral data.